2025 Victoria Derby winner Observer led all-the-way in a huge 2500m victory for the favourite backers. Photo: Ultimate Racing Photos.
Race 1: Carbine Club Stakes 1600m Group 3 3yo | 12:20pm AEDT
Selections:
#3. High Falls
#2. Unhinged
#9. Conquer The World
#6. Glenorchy
High Falls is my on top selection, he is 2/2 in his career and was very impressive in his last race winning by 7 lengths. His drawn low which is a huge positive for him as he will most likely want to settle on-pace. His breeding suggests the further he gets the better he will get and he has shown every sign that he will relish the mile at Flemington. Chris Waller has won this race the past two years with Aeliana in 2024 and Panova in 2025. Waller’s best chance is Unhinged who is coming off an impressive win at Rosehill, coming from behind and motoring past his opposition. Only knock is the rise in weight from 52kg to 57kg, but have to respect. Conquer The World was impressive in his last start, winning by 6 lengths and doing it in a blistering time of 1:22.96, the fastest of any runner in this race over 1400m. Glenorchy rounds out my top 4 selections, he loomed up nicely first up this prep, but was unable to go past the winner which suggests he needed the run and will be fitter for this. He brings solid form from his prior preparation when he placed behind Voynichese and finished 6th in the Group 1 J.J. Atkins behind Tron Bolt and Cormier.
Race 2: TAB Vanity 1400m Group 3 3yoF | 1:00pm AEDT
Selections:
#1. Regal Ambition
#4. Pin Up Sheila
#8. Autumn Lover
#12. Blue Dream
There is a few I like in this race, but I’m backing the class of the favourite Regal Ambition to prove superior than the others. She’s coming off the back of a gallant third behind Saintly Dancer in the Group 1 Thousand Guineas, and looks a class above the fillies she’ll meet in this race. Pin Up Sheila brings the best form of the Sydney raiders, running the fastest time for 1400m in the field and with James McDonald on the O’shea Charlton runner the Filly deserves to be considered. The best roughie in the race is Autumn Lover who has been an eye-catching run in her past two-starts and is worth a small bet at the price. Blue Dream was a very impressive run on debut, but the Grahame Begg runner is coming out of a Maiden graded race and therefore faces a stiffer test here.
Race 3: Wakeful Stakes 2000m Group 2 3yoF | 1:40pm AEDT
Selections:
#5. Your Colour
#1. Icelady
#6. Churchill Rose
#3. De Armas
Your Colour was very impressive last start, flying home from last and finishing half a length behind the winner. Hopefully James McDonald doesn’t get the Filly too far back in the run and can settle within striking distance of the lead. The favourite Icelady will be hard to beat as she brings Group 1 form from the Thousand Guineas, and stuck on well to finish 2nd behind Saintly Dancer. Always have to respect the South Australian raiders when they come for the Derby/Oaks and Churchill Rose brings solid form finishing 2nd over 1800m, where after being headed by the eventual winner she fought back and went stride-for-stride to the finish line. Chris Waller looks to have set De Armas for this race to springboard her into the Oaks. While the distance is a slight query, she brings remarkable form running 2nd in the Group 1 Flight Stakes at Randwick and 4th in the Thousand Guineas at her latest start.
Race 4: Rising Fast Stakes 1200m Group 3 | 2:20pm AEDT
Selections:
#5. Sweynesday
#2. Napoleonic
#20. Hankee Alpha
#12. King Zephyr
I was very impressed by the way Sweynesday hit the line in his first-up assignment, coming from last to finish fifth in the end behind Cavalry Girl, now second-up he should strip fitter and the rise to 1200m is a huge tick. Napoleonic is the class horse of the field, running 2nd behind Ninja first-up and 6th to Jimmysstar in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes. The major negative is he has to carry 59.5kg which is a lot to ask of any horse in a handicap race. While Hankee Alpha did win emphatically first-up at Flemington it should be noted it was on a heavy track and most of this horses winning form is on rain affected tracks. Just want to see her do it on a dry track before I back her. Not sure whether King Zephyr will run in this or the next, but wherever he goes I want to be on him because he gets a 3kg weight drop, goes back to a dry track, which he excels at, and was charging home strongly in his last start at this track and distance.
Race 5: Damien Oliver 1400m Group 2 | 3:00pm AEDT
Selections:
#5. Warnie
#18. King Zephyr
#12. Persian Spirit
#11. Steparty
I believe Warnie can go back to back in this race, he’s coming off an impressive 4th in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap and will carry the same weight as he did on that occasion. He has a great record at the track and trip. The worries I hold is the drop back from 1600m to 1400m and his low gate draw. Barrier 1 might do more harm than good, as he could find himself held up on the rails. For reasons outlined in the previous race, King Zephyr is my second selection, he is going up against a stronger contingent of horses in this race but will be helped by the rise in trip to 1400m. Persian Spirit is an ultra consistent galloper who always seems to be there about in every single one of his races and it’s almost impossible to not have him in my numbers. Steparty ran 2nd to Persian Spirit last start and get’s a huge weight relief from that last start, additionally he absolutely loves this track and distance having 4 starts for 1 win and 2 placings.
Race 6: Coolmore Stud Stakes 1200m Group 1 3yo | 3:40pm AEDT
Selections:
#1. The Next Episode
#13. Satono Glow
#12. Natural Fling
#5. St Gotthard
I’ve been a big fan of The Next Episode’s since his Queensland prep. First-up he defeated Natural Fling coming from near last and swooping late. I’m worried that he is only coming into this race second-up and won’t be as fit as his competitors, but I trust the judgement of Ciaron Maher to get this horse spot on for his Grand Final. What a great preparation Satono Glow has put together, a huge win first-up before a display of pure speed in her second-up run. She handles all goings and is the main threat to The Next Episode. Natural Fling is not to be displaced after her narrow defeat to The Next Episode last time out. The speed map indicates that most of the key runners will settle at the back, Natural Fling holds the tactical advantage by settling on-pace which could prove the difference. St Gotthard will be looking to emulate his full brothers success, Switzerland, who won this race in 2024. He’s finished second to boom colt Warwoven in both runs this prep, but hasn’t been disgraced in any of those runs. The query, that other horses don’t have, is how he will handle the straight at Flemington? But I still want to be in his corner because he has a tone of ability and talent.
Race 7: Victoria Derby 2500m Group 1 3yo | 4:20pm AEDT
Selections:
#8. Cignetti
#6. Vallice
#4. King Snitz
#1. Cormier
It’s a wide open rendition of the Victoria Derby, with various form lines mixing. I think the Group 2 Sportsbet Classic form is extremely strong this year, while it was a blanket finish the first three runners gapped the rest of the field with Cignetti doing his best work late which suggests he will relish the 2500m journey. Vallice and King Snitz who both finished in front of Cignetti in that race have to be respected as well, my concerns with Vallice is the wide draw, while with King Snitz I have a small worry that he won’t get the trip. The Spring Champion Stakes isn’t typically the right formline for this race, but I get the impression with a low draw and the ability to settle on-speed Cormier can have a huge impact on this race. I don’t have Stormy Marco in my numbers cause I am concerned with his wide barrier draw.
Race 8: Empire Rose Stakes 1600m Group 1 3yo F&M | 5:00pm AEDT
Selections:
#1. Lady Shenandoah
#3. Surfin’ Bird
#10. Concord Connie
#5. Unleeshing
I was trying to find a reason to not be with Lady Shenandoah, but I can’t find one. She’s coming off the back of an impressive Group 1 win at handicap level where she was the top weight, now back on set weights terms she has everything in her favour. Surfin’ Bird put in a gutsy performance last week when fending off Buckaroo at this track and trip. She is a perfect 5/5 at 1600m and looks the main danger to Lady Shenandoah. Concord Connie has been building to this assignment, with positive runs over 1200m and 1400m in her first two runs this preparation. I doubt she is up to Group 1 level and whether she can match it with proven mares Lady Shenandoah and Surfin’ Bird. Unleeshing was the only other Mare I could see with a winning chance, her two first up runs were behind Golden Eagle contenders Decorum and Night Agent, before winning her past two starts. The concern I have is the 3kg weight rise and the step up in grade.
Race 9: Asahi Super Dry Sprint 1100m Group 3 4yo+M | 5:40pm AEDT
Selections:
#4. Flying For Fun
#10. Bridal Waltz
#3. Inkaruna
#5. Naifah
Flying For Fun and Bridal Waltz are the two I want to be with in this race. Flying For Fun flew home to finish runner-up to Jigsaw last time out and only has to carry 0.5kg extra. I just don’t want the rain to come because she does not handle wet tracks. Bridal Waltz has been disappointing in her last two runs, but will be suited by a return to running down the Flemington straight. Additionally, unlike Flying For Fun, Bridal Waltz can handle a soft going and should hopefully notch up her first win this prep which has been promising. Inkaruna and Naifah must also be respected, they both put in great runs in their last outings. Inkaruna finished 0.5 lengths behind Flying For Fun, while Naifah beat home Bridal Waltz and will be helped by a rain affect track.
